…but they (as well as we) still think quantum computing sufficient to break codes are 10 to 20 years off. That timeframe gets one day further with each new dawn. None the less, quantum is coming. Even if winter sets in first. Because Quantum is Coming. Qubit
Post-quantum cryptographic standards to be finalized later this year
+ The agency has settled on seven finalist algorithms, all of which they believe will be ready for standardization after this latest round of evaluations, along with another eight as backups. Many of the proposals intentionally draw from different cryptography standards or approaches — part of the agency’s plan to have viable encryption alternatives if one of the choices doesn’t work as intended or an unforeseen development in quantum cryptography leaves one or two algorithms vulnerable in the future.
“We will name the [finalists] roughly about the end of this year, and then we’ll write up some draft standards, we’ll put those out for public comment, and it will probably take us a year or two to get that all done,” said Moody. “We expect final standards to be ready about 2024 [so] that people can begin using and adopting these algorithms.”
+ As to when quantum-resistant computers will be necessary, Moody noted that while some cryptographers believe we are as little as five years away, most continue to project a timeline of 10 to 20 years before the technology breaks through in any meaningful fashion. While the computers developed by IBM, Intel and Google are getting bigger and able to process an increasing larger number of qubits, they’re also impractically fragile and require near zero or Absolute Zero temperatures to function.
+ All throughout the project, NIST officials have been hyper-aware of their position as a bellwether of information security standards for both government and industry. As a result, their default approach to this project has been one of caution and due diligence. Moody stressed that the agency has tried to speed up the process where it can, but that laying down standards that could wind up dictating decades of security and purchasing decisions is something that “just takes time” and shouldn’t be rushed.
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